(Oded Yinon Plan, United Arab Emirates, United States)

Divider of states, ally of the Oded Yinon logic and Western power, and a determined opponent of Islam

For roughly the past fifteen years, the United Arab Emirates have undergone a profound transformation in their foreign policy. Once discreet and cautious, they have become one of the most interventionist, aggressive, and controversial actors in the Middle East and the Horn of Africa.

Understanding this policy is essential to grasp what is currently unfolding in Yemen, Sudan, Somalia, Libya, and, more broadly, the regional balance of power.

1. 1971–2000: A Survival-Oriented, Discreet and Defensive Diplomacy

After gaining independence in 1971, the UAE pursued a foreign policy characterized by:

  • extreme diplomatic caution,
  • close alignment with Saudi Arabia and the United States,
  • an absolute priority given to internal stability and the survival of the young federation.

At that time, the UAE was primarily a rentier state dependent on oil revenues, with no regional military ambitions.

2. 2000–2010: Economic and Military Rise

With the explosion of oil and financial wealth, Abu Dhabi initiated a strategic shift:

  • professionalization and modernization of the armed forces,
  • massive foreign investments,
  • increased diplomatic visibility.

Security was now conceived beyond national borders, though military engagement remained cautious.

3. Since 2011: The Interventionist Turn

The Arab uprisings of 2011 represented a major strategic shock.

Emirati leaders identified two existential threats:

  • revolutionary contagion,
  • the rise of political Islam, particularly the Muslim Brotherhood.

➡️ From that moment on, the UAE shifted from a discreet state to a proactive regional power, relying on:

  • indirect military interventions,
  • proxy militias and auxiliary forces,
  • coercive economic and financial tools.

4. UAE–Saudi Relations: From Alliance to Rivalry

For years, both countries were strategic allies:

  • shared opposition to political Islam,
  • common efforts to contain Iranian influence,
  • joint war in Yemen against Twelver Iranian-backed influence.

Gradually, however, the alliance fractured:

  • economic and diplomatic rivalry,
  • opposing visions in Yemen,
  • competition for regional leadership.

5. Yemen 🇾🇪: A Laboratory of Emirati Policy

The UAE intervened militarily in Yemen in 2015 alongside Riyadh against the Houthis.

Their strategy quickly evolved:

  • official withdrawal in 2019,
  • massive support for the Southern Transitional Council (STC),
  • control of Aden,
  • occupation of Socotra and Mayyun Island,
  • de facto creation of a southern separatist entity.

This resulted in Yemen’s fragmentation into three entities:

  • Houthi-controlled zones,
  • the internationally recognized government,
  • a UAE-backed southern separatist zone.

By late 2025, the collapse of the Emirati architecture in Yemen marked a major strategic setback, with the loss of influence over Socotra and the rallying of local forces to Riyadh.

6. Sudan: A Proxy War

After the 2019 coup and the 2021 takeover, the UAE moved closer to Sudan’s military leadership.

They actively supported the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) led by Hemedti through:

  • financing via looted Sudanese gold,
  • deliveries of weapons, drones, and ammunition,
  • mercenaries,
  • logistical platforms in Chad, Libya, and South Sudan.

In return, Sudanese gold transited through Dubai, financing the RSF war effort.

7. Libya: Against Political Islam and Turkey

Since 2014, the UAE has actively supported the forces of General Haftar:

  • total hostility toward Muslim Brotherhood–linked factions,
  • intent to contain Turkey and Qatar,
  • strategic interests in the Eastern Mediterranean.

8. Somalia: Ports, Logistics, and Regional Rivalries

The UAE seeks control over maritime routes in the Gulf of Aden through:

  • port concessions,
  • military presence in Berbera (Somaliland) and Bosaso (Puntland),
  • political support for regional entities against the federal government in Mogadishu.

This policy is tied to the UAE–Ethiopia strategic alliance, as Addis Ababa seeks maritime access. The UAE could even go as far as recognizing Somaliland.

9. Egypt: A Pillar Against the Muslim Brotherhood

The UAE has been one of the main supporters of President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s regime since the 2013 coup:

  • massive financial support,
  • military cooperation (Libya),
  • ideological alliance against the Muslim Brotherhood.

10. Syria: Pragmatic Re-engagement with Damascus

Long beyond Emirati reach due to Syria’s alliance with Iran, Abu Dhabi initiated rapprochement with Bashar al-Assad in 2023:

  • security logic,
  • reconstruction interests,
  • diplomatic influence.

11. Israel and the Abraham Accords

Since 2020, the UAE has become one of Israel’s closest regional allies.

Objectives:

  • present itself as the most “moderate” Arab partner of the West,
  • consolidate the fight against political Islam,
  • reinforce its strategic role in Washington.

12. The Obsessive Fight Against Political Islam

For Abu Dhabi, the Muslim Brotherhood is not merely a political current but an existential ideological threat.

Since 2011, the UAE has pursued:

  • total internal repression,
  • a regional indirect war against all affiliated forces,
  • frontal hostility toward Turkey, Qatar, and even Iran when interests converge.

13. Relations with the West and Major Powers

The UAE maintains close ties with:

  • the United States, reinforced under Donald Trump,
  • Europe—particularly France, a major arms supplier (Rafale, Leclerc),
  • while simultaneously strengthening relations with China, India, and Russia.

Conclusion: What Are the Real Objectives of the UAE?

The Emirati strategy rests on several clear pillars:

  • fighting the Muslim Brotherhood everywhere,
  • controlling strategic trade routes,
  • investing in East African agricultural lands,
  • waging remote warfare through proxy forces,
  • capturing mineral and gold resources in conflict zones,
  • pursuing opportunistic multilateral diplomacy.

➡️ The recent setback in Yemen, however, reveals the limits of a policy based on division, coercion, and proxy warfare.

Understanding this strategy sheds light on the tragedies unfolding in Sudan, Somalia, Yemen, and the deep reconfiguration of the contemporary Middle East.

Note on the Term “Political Islam”

The expression “political Islam” has become a rhetorical scarecrow—deliberately vague—used to disqualify any society that refuses to confine Islam to the private sphere. It does not describe an objective reality but serves to conflate Islamic reference with radicalism or violence.

A country that takes Islam as a moral and legal reference stands at the opposite end of terrorism. Islam forbids the killing of innocents, terror, chaos, and unjust transgression. It is founded on justice, protection of life, social stability, accountability of power, and preservation of the common good.

What is labeled “political Islam” is therefore neither a destructive ideology nor a terrorist project, but an ethical vision of society rooted in human dignity, justice, and moral coherence. The confusion surrounding this term reflects not security concerns, but fear of independent civilizational sovereignty.

For a Geopolitics of Unity, Sunnah, and Peace: A Muslim Response to Fragmentation Strategies

The Oded Yinon Plan—and its later adaptations—rests on a simple but destructive logic: permanently weaken the Muslim world by fragmenting states, inflaming internal divisions (ethnic, sectarian, tribal), and multiplying rival entities incapable of resisting external powers.

This logic never disappeared; it merely changed faces and intermediaries.

Today, certain regional policies—particularly those of the UAE—objectively fit this same dynamic:

  • support for separatism,
  • encouragement of internal division,
  • instrumentalization of local conflicts,
  • proxy warfare,
  • demonization of any unifying Islamic reference under the label of “political Islam.”

The Muslim response cannot be chaos, radicalism, or submission. It must be civilizational, coherent, and faithful to the Sunnah.

1. Unity as a Fundamental Geopolitical Principle in Islam

Islam does not conceive unity as an emotional slogan but as a structuring principle:

  • unity of the Ummah,
  • rejection of fitna (organized discord),
  • primacy of reconciliation over division,
  • refusal of projects that fragment peoples to dominate them.

An authentic Muslim geopolitics does not aim to create weak micro-states, but to preserve societal integrity, sovereignty, and self-determination.

2. The Sunnah: A Model of Order, Not Chaos

Contrary to caricatures, the Sunnah of the Prophet ﷺ produces neither terrorism nor disorder:

  • authority grounded in justice,
  • protection of lives,
  • prohibition of terror,
  • prioritization of stability, peace, and accountability.

Islam is the opposite of terrorism:
terrorism destroys society; Islam preserves it.
Terrorism thrives on chaos; Islam imposes strict moral limits.

Equating the two is not a mistake—it is strategic manipulation.

3. Against the Geopolitics of Division: A Geopolitics of Just Peace

Peace in Islam is not capitulation. It is based on:

  • ending proxy wars,
  • rejecting destructive interference,
  • cooperation among Muslim peoples,
  • resolving conflicts through mediation rather than arming factions.

A healthy Muslim geopolitics does not serve as a military subcontractor for Western powers, nor does it seek international respectability at the cost of Muslim blood.

4. “Political Islam”: A Term Masking Fear of Unity

What is called “political Islam” often simply means:

  • a people’s desire to remain sovereign,
  • refusal of imposed foreign models,
  • aspiration for governance rooted in strong Muslim moral values.

Unity frightens those whose power depends on division.

5. A Muslim Path: Unity, Dignity, and Responsibility

The real alternative to Yinon-style fragmentation is not rigid ideology, but:

  • unity of Muslim peoples,
  • an assumed Islamic moral framework,
  • a clear rejection of terrorism and chaos,
  • diplomacy based on peace, sovereignty, and justice.

➡️ An authentic Muslim geopolitics is not expansionist or destructive—it is protective, stabilizing, and civilizational.

Final Conclusion

In the face of strategies that divide and pit Muslims against one another, the answer is not fear of Islam, but a return to its essence: unity, justice, peace, dignity, and responsibility.

“And hold firmly to the rope of Allah all together and do not become divided.”
Qur’an, Āl ʿImrān (3:103)

This path—and only this one—offers a credible, lasting, and humane response to projects of domination and fragmentation of the Muslim world.